Stacie Farmer

Endlessly learning

Mitigate Future Risk with Savings

October 17, 2019

Every morning, I listen to NPR in the car. Lately, the financial news has been on a downward trend. Almost every morning, the Dow is down, the NASDAQ is down, the S&P 500 is down. It’s not sounding great.

Who knows what’s coming. Maybe it’s a blip. But maybe it’s not.

That’s life. Things go well for a while, then there’s a downward trend. Things are bad for a while, then there’s an upward trend. Back and forth, again and again and again. It’s just a part of life.

I spend a lot of time thinking about security. When you get down to it, security is all about risk and trying to manage it.

Will your system/app/data be attacked? (Spoiler alert: It probably will be.) What’s the probability of that happening? What can you do to minimize that probability and/or lessen the severity if/when it does happen? It’s all about managing risk.

Maybe you don’t think about security as much as I do and that all sounds like boring business talk. But you think about managing risk every day in your life.

Should I run that yellow light? What’s the probability of me being hit if I do (how close are you)? How can I minimize the probability (look carefully before running it)? Or how can I lessen the severity if I am hit (wear my seatbelt)?

Should I feed my kid grapes? What’s the probability of them choking (depends on their age)? How can I minimize the probability of them choking (cut the graps in half)? Or how can I lessen the severity if they do choke (stay nearby to help quickly)?

Every day you think about managing risk.

Let’s go back to the financial news. Will the economy take a downturn? At some point, yes. If history is any indication, it will happen again. Markets cycle. They go up and they go down. Do we know exactly when it will happen? No. What’s the probability of it happening soon? I’m not a financial expert, but there are some indications it might happen soon. But it’s all just speculation. We can’t know for sure.

How can I minimize the probability of a recession? Well, since that’s more of a big-picture thing, you probably can’t do much. You can stay calm. Keep doing what you’re doing even if there is a recession. Keep investing. Keep spending. Keep working. Don’t panic. These things happen.

Okay then, how can I lessen the severity when a recession happens? Here’s where you have the most control - you can save.

I know you know this. We all know this. But a lot of us don’t do it even though it’s the best way to manage financial risk. Markets go down. People panic. They buy less. Companies panic. They invest less and often that panic causes layoffs.

You could be one of those people laid off. If you were an employee during the 2008 recession, you know this fear. Layoffs happen - a lot - during recessions. Your income might be cut in half or completely gone overnight. Be prepared for this.

How? Have emergency savings.

How much? Well, how much do you need to feel comfortable?

Some experts say 3 months of income, some say 6 months, a few might say 12 months. How much emergency savings will help you sleep at night? That’s your ultimate goal.

It’s hard saving that much money. Believe me, I know.

When my husband and I got married, we had a newborn and our 2nd child on the way. I was “downsized” from my job not long after that. A few months later, we bought our first home and our 2nd child was born. My husband, the sole income earner, brought in enough that we figured we’d be okay. In January, the following year, my husband was “downsized” from the company.

We had very little savings and now no income. We stripped our expenses down to the absolute minimum. I started looking for a job and our extended family helped where they could. But it was a really rough time.

We made it through though and were able to find jobs to mostly replace our income. After that experience, we decided to never be caught off guard again. We focused intently on paying off all our non-house debt and building savings. In 5 years we paid off around $30,000 of debt and had 6-months of income saved. But it was tough getting there.

How’d we do it? One step at a time.

We set the smallest goal we could hit - saving 1 month’s income. Depending on your situation, this goal could be even smaller like saving $20 or $50. Start with what you can reasonably accomplish.

And we worked toward that goal every single day. We didn’t spent barely anything on luxuries like eating out or entertainment. We rented movies from the library and made meals at home. We watched our expenses closely and put money away every single paycheck.

You have to work on it every single day, week, or paycheck, because saving is a skill. Like any skill, it gets better with practice.

So you start with a tiny goal you can reasonably hit. Then you practice saving to reach that goal.

You’ll probably have setbacks, I know we did. But you pick yourself back up and keep at it. Do that over and over again, you’ll hit your goal.

And you’ll feel amazing. Congratulate yourself because it was probably damn hard. Now set a new goal. Stretch yourself a tiny bit more. I pushed my goal to 2 month’s income. As long as you’re stretching a little bit, but not too far, then it’s perfect.

And practice again. Eventually, you’ll hit that goal. Now, celebrate, set your new goal, and practice again. Wash, rinse, repeat.

It’s a simple process, but can be difficult in its implementation. Have confidence that you can do difficult things. Be empathetic that you’ll experience setbacks and that’s okay. Get back up and try again.

The focus here is to practice saving in a way that works for YOU. Set a reasonable goal that works for YOU. Practice saving in a way that works for YOU. Don’t take my advice or someone else and expect it to work perfectly for you. This is a skill you get to implement and practice in a way that works for YOU and YOU alone.

But practice this skill. Because living in a capitalist economy means we are constantly dealing with financial risk. And one of the best ways to mitigate that risk is to have savings you can rely on.

Remember, you deal with risk every day. This is not new stuff. Dealing with future risk is harder, but it’s a skill just like saving. The more you think about the future, the more likely you are to take steps now to help deal with future risks.

It’s scary and difficult, but doable. It’s important that you start taking steps now to help mitigate future financial risk. Because recessions happen. And you’ll feel a lot less anxious if you start working today on building a financial cushion.

It doesn’t take an advanced degree or financial prowess. Just set a small, achievable goal, work toward it bit by bit, congratulate yourself for hitting it, then stretch yourself a little bit more for the next goal. Difficult, yes - but 100% doable.